Blue Bulletin
Majors Industries
September 2025
September 2025 auction results
The last auction of the year was held on August 20.
Current vintage units were sold at US$28.76 (C$39.84), or US$2.89 above the 2025 floor price of US$25.87. Units of future vintages were sold at US$28.50 (C$39.48). For reference, the current vintage units were sold at the floor price at the previous auction in May 2025. Unlike the previous auction, all current and future vintage units found buyers in the August 2025 auction.
The detailed auction results (in french) are available on the website of Quebec’s Ministère de l’Environnement.
CATS price trends in the secondary market
After a spring marked by prices hovering around the regulatory floor of US$25.87, a slight price level increase, followed by relative stability, was observed during the summer. This stability can be explained by several factors, including persistent economic uncertainty, the silence following Trump’s executive orders and the summer recess of California lawmakers.
As soon as the legislature reconvened, the dialogue between Congress and the governor’s office regarding the extension of the CATS program intensified, notably with the August 20 disclosure of amendments to Bill AB 1207, one of the key bills on this subject. This unexpected development, on the eve of the August auction, sparked a slight resurgence of enthusiasm among participants. Since then, two bills, including AB 1207, have been introduced in the State Senate and Assembly.
As the 2025 legislative session draws to a close, market participants remain cautious, given the differences in opinion between the two chambers. In addition, other state climate and energy priorities are also under consideration. This clearly illustrates the lack of consensus on these issues in California.
In Quebec, there are no regulatory developments to report at this time. However, the Cap-and-Trade System (CATS) remains a topic to watch closely, particularly in the context of the upcoming provincial election campaign.
As of September 9, 2025, the price of an emission permit is US$30.94 (C$42.80), or US$5.07 (C$7.01) less than the current floor price.
Assessment of CATS operating parameters: Status report
Since CARB (California Air Resources Board) recognized last May the need to address affordability concerns in the next iteration of CATS, there has been no announcement regarding upcoming regulatory changes in California and Quebec. A compromise scenario to address these concerns would result in the withdrawal of 118 million emissions allowances between 2026 and 2030 instead of the 180 million previously announced. As a reminder, a 48% reduction scenario had previously been anticipated in California, in line with the market notice published in October 2024.
Even with the adoption of the new scenario, the adoption of the expected regulatory changes will lead to a stricter reduction target and trajectory and thus a tighter balance between emission permit supply and demand over the long term.
As a reminder, the Government of Quebec proposed to remove 17 million emission allowances from its future inssuance, in addition reducing the offset credit cap. These adjustments are aimed at strengthening the efficiency of the Quebec system in achieving its GHG reduction targets for 2030 and goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Since last October’s update, no further updates have been provided as to when the proposed regulations will be officially published.
Next auction scheduled for November 2025
The last auction of 2025 is planned for November 2025.