According to the May 2023 forecast issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), production is projected to decline through the end of the summer, then increase slowly and hold steady around 101 Bcf/d in 2024. That said, even with a slight decline, production remains largely sufficient to meet domestic consumption and fulfill liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. For the summer of 2023, the natural gas market is expected to see U.S. production up 1.2% from its average level in summer 2022. However, for the same period, domestic consumption is expected to rise by just 0.2%.
As a result, the natural gas balance is expected to be much more relaxed and less conducive to price increases such as those observed last year. At the same time, this balance is accompanied by less pressure to replenish the storage tanks in preparation for winter 2023–2024. By the end of October 2023, these storage facilities are expected to reach approximately 3,762 Bcf, an increase of 5.4% compared to levels in late October 2022. These prospects definitively have a calming effect on spot and futures prices.