November 2024 auction results
The last auction of 2024 was held on November 20.
The final sale price of emission units for the current vintage was set at US$31.91 (CAN$44.61), while the price for the future vintage was set at US$30.16 (CAN$42.17). The sale price for the current vintage is up slightly from the August 2024 auction, where the final price was US$30.24 (C$41.50).
Detailed results are available on the Ministère de l’Environnement website.
Changes in CATS prices over the past three months
After renewed enthusiasm in the secondary market in October 2024, a downward trend took hold in November following the announcement of a delay in the publication of regulatory changes in California and Quebec, reflecting participants’ wait-and-see attitude.
After a quarterly price peak of US$38.52 in mid-October, prices hit several successive lows in recent months. The price dropped below US$30 to US$29.75 on January 23, 2025. According to some forecasters, prices and interest in the secondary market are expected to pick up once regulatory changes in California and Quebec are published. These changes, previously expected in early 2025, could be postponed until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Assessment of CATS operating parameters: consultations ongoing in California
In November 2024, the publication delay of long-awaited regulatory changes in California and Quebec was confirmed for early 2025. A combination of factors account for this additional delay, including higher-priority issues in California such as forest fires, the rollout of additional climate-related disclosure rules, litigation arising from the recent update of LCFS regulations and the change in administration at the federal level.
The adoption of the proposed regulatory changes will lead to a stricter reduction target and trajectory and thus a tighter balance between supply and demand over the long term. According to market notices published last October, the Government of California plans to withdraw at least 180 million emission units available between 2026 and 2030. The Government of Quebec suggests the removal of 17 million emission allowances from its future offering. The province also noted the gradual reduction in the maximum percentage of offset credits available for future compliance.
The objective of the change in Quebec is to ensure the long-term relevance of the CATS and to make sure that it remains an effective tool for achieving the 2030 target for greenhouse gas emission reductions and for ensuring carbon neutrality by 2050 in Quebec. California has the same goal and is taking this same approach to ensure that its regulations remain aligned with its climate objectives.
February 19, 2025 auction: first auction of the year.
In December 2024, the Government of Quebec released information on 2025 government auctions, including the floor price level and all four scheduled auction dates. The 2025 minimum auction price was set at US$25.87.
The first auction of 2025 is scheduled for February 19, 2025, during which 51.5 million current vintage emission units and 6.8 million future vintage emission units are being offered for sale. The results are expected to be released on February 26, 2025.